An avid fan of both Television and Cinema, this blog is desined to give Noble's personal predictions, and analysis of the Oscar and Emmy races each year, as well as providing a place for Noble's own annual awards for film and television to be archived. Feedback and Discussion is welcomed in the form of comments on the blog posts.

Monday, September 14, 2009

2009 Final Emmy Predictions: Drama Supporting Actress

2008: Diane Wiest, In Treatment (CORRECT)
2007: Rachael Griffiths, Brothers & Sisters (WRONG – HEIGEL)
2006: Candice Bergan, Boston Legal (WRONG – DANNER)
2005: Blyth Danner, Huff! (CORRECT)

Rose Byrne, Damages (Trust Me)
R: We see her in the power position with Patty then shocked and confused in the scene where she's arrested. Finally, there's her final scene where you see her softer and reflective side.
I: Her scene with Patty where she shoots the camera is particularly intense.
S: 30:31
E: The final scene at David's grave gets you to feel for her and view her in a more positive light. A nice way for the episode to end for her.

Hope Davis, In Treatment (Mia: Week 6)
Full disclosure, I havn’t seen any of In Treatment season 2 so am going off reviews and recaps.
R: Sounds like a tape full of sadness and reflection.
I: Most seem to think this is a bad choice so I'm assuming no huge money scene. The fact that she is the focus of the episode will help with impact.
S: Estimated 21:00
E: Talking about her issues with not having a baby and problems with her parents. Sounds like a highly emotive tape where you will feel sorry for her.

Cherry Jones, 24 (Day 7: 7:00am - 8:00am)
R: She's angry, devastated a loving mother and presidential.
I: The scene where her daughter confesses to her and she gets angry has impact.
S: 9:45
E: You really feel for her as she struggles between her loyalty to her family and her loyalty to her office. She ends up making the right decision by putting country first and you are sad for the effects it will have on her family life.

Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy (Elevator Love Letter)
R: At the beginning she's scared as she's strangled, then she is trying to be strong and at the end she weakly admits that she's not strong enough.
I: The opening scene has impact but she is sharing it with her boyfriend (as she does in most of her big scenes) who in some ways has a baityer role.
S: 10:25. Plus an additional 2:30 in Wilson's tape.
E: You feel sorry for her getting strangled and at the end as she breaks up with the guy, but in many ways this is the cold performance. And the fact that she's leaving the guy with PTSD may turn some voters off.

Diane Wiest (Gina: Week 6)
Full disclosure, I havn’t seen any of In Treatment season 2 so am going off reviews and recaps.
R: Paul apparently gets Gina all riled up here and I'm assuming she starts out her regular self.
I: Gina getting mad will provide some impact and with Paul turning the session on her will make her the focus of the episode.
S: Estimated 21:00
E: In some ways she's a cold character. With Paul putting her on the spot people may feel sorry for her or not like her angry response.

Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy (Stairway to Heaven)
R: At the beginning she is very professional and adamant, then we see her become more personally involved in the case which lead her to get sad. Then there is happiness at the end with the kid.
I: Breaking into hysterics and showdown with Derek are good but not great money scenes.
S: 9:53
E: She's trying to save a little boys life and has scenes where she breaks into hysterics. It's a very emotive performance. I to be honest didn't quite feel this and thought it was silly that she would have a 180 degree flip in principle in such a short amount of time. But voters will likely lap this all up.

Noble R.I.S.E. Scores
Range: Byrne (35), Wiest (35), Wilson (35), Jones (35), Oh (10), Davis (0)
Impact: Wiest (50), Byrne (40), Wilson (30), Jones (20), Davis (10), Oh (0)
S-Time: Byrne (50), Davis (35), Wiest (35), Oh 20), Jones (5), Wilson (5)
Empathy: Davis (50), Wilson (35), Jones (35), Byrne (20), Wiest (10), Oh (0)

1. Rose Byrne, Damages (145)
2. Diane Wiest, In Treatment (130)
3. Chandra Wilson, Grey’s Anatomy (105)
4. Cherry Jones, 24 (95)
4. Hope Davis, In Treatment (95)
6. Sandra Oh, Grey’s Anatomy (30)

24 seems on the outs with the emmys, Jones has no buzz and her tape is short, so I’m saying she’s out. However she’s a respected tony winning actress, on a past drama series winner and gives a nice performance so she does have an outside shot. Oh just doesn’t have a good enough tape to be in this, it is so underwhelming. If she wins it will purely be for being the overdue candidate.

Hope Davis is the dark horse here. She apparently has not submitted her best here, but that’s what was said about Wiest last year. If the voters still like this style of acting and want to reward someone new then this tony nominee could win.

Chandra Wilson gives a very emotional performance. I think it’s silly but that’s what I thought about Heigel’s winning tape, it voters fall for this blatant pulling of the heart strings then this slightly overdue actress will win here. Rose Byre is the only one here from a drama series contender and gives a long performance I would think she has a great chance but getting in her way will be... Wiest, last year’s winner returning with an apparently even better tape. This theatrical master class in acting turned on the voters here last year and I expect similar this year. This 2 time Oscar winner, respected veteran will get to put a 2nd emmy on her mantle.

1. Diane Wiest, In Treatment
2. Rose Byrne, Damages
3. Chandra Wilson, Grey’s Anatomy

4. Hope Davis, In Treatment

5. Sanda Oh, Grey’s Anatomy
6. Cherry Jones, 24

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