This year I am going to post my fianl predictions for the preimetime emmy awards up here. To start things off are my predictions for the comedy acting categories. Included are the results from my Noble RISE calcuations, presented in graph form, as well as my final analysis.
So here they are:
Although a weak season of Weeds, Parker still managed to deliver an ace performance week after week. However due to serialised and subtle nature of the role she always needs to submit her best, this year she chose a dud tape and knocked herself out. Fererra has a very showy tape and she’s last year’s winner but the tape is also a bit ridiculous and it really isn’t as strong as my above score may suggest. She could win, but with her show and herself losing the buzz that propelled her to the winner’s circle last year I think she’s also out of it. Then you have the three that have a serious shot. Dreyfuss has a solid tape and she’s a past winner, but I don’t think she’s the strongest and the circumstances surrounding her previous win aren’t all present in this year’s line-up. I’ve tossed and turned between the last two. Fey has all the buzz this year and a much better tape than my score above suggests, I’d personally say she has the best tape. On the other hand you have Applegate with a great tape also (arguably the best) and is the new actress to the scene, and the last three winners of this category have won for their first season. The two things that tip it for me is that Applegate’s cancer struggle may help get her support and the hurdle that many may view Fey more as a writer/producer than an actor and think she will be rewarded in other categories.
- Christina Applegate, Samantha Who? (FROUNTRUNNER)
- Tina Fey, 30 Rock (FROUNTRUNNER)
- Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, The New Adventures of Old Christine (DARK HORSE)
- America Fererra, Ugly Betty (IN WITH A CHANCE)
- Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds (LONGSHOT)
Pace gives a solid performance but its subtlety means it may not stick in voters minds. It is also worth noting that in the past 10 years only 1 man has won this category for his first season and that was (3 time winner) Tony Shaloub so the stats don't look great for Pace. I agree that Sheen has submitted his best ever (it's still the worst tape of the batch) so I guess that if he ever was to win it would be this year. But the competition is too strong and with 0 wins in major categories I get the feeling that the Emmys don't love his show. Shaloub has not submitted a great entry for him, but it still gives him heaps of screentime, an big emotional scene and he gets to play the zany impactful Adrian Monk - so he has a real chance to upset (if vote-splitting occurs between the nbc lads), but with 3 wins I don't think it is a strong enough tape (or weak enough field) to make voters excited enough to give him a 4th. Like most people think, this is a 2 horse race. Will they go with the guy with all the buzz and the most impactful scene or the more overdue guy who has the best overall tape. I'm going to go with the latter since this year Carell doesn’t have to worry about one of his competitors getting credit for his tape/performance also (Gervais). Then again last year I also predicted Carell and this race is tight.
- Steve Carell, The Office (FROUNTRUNNER)
- Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (FROUNTRUNNER)
- Tony Shaloub, Monk (DARK HORSE)
- Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men (IN WITH A CHANCE)
- Lee Pace, Pushing (IN WITH A CHANCE)
Any of these ladies could win. Taylor is a respected veteran who delivers a lot of laughs and has the most overdue role of all the nominees but her tape has no closure so I think she will struggle. Poehler is so different to everyone else and she will ever get the most votes or the least and, with no precedent to base this, at the moment I’m going with the latter. Although Baby Mama and Tina Fey’s sucess could help. Smart has a decent but not great tape and her previous Emmy nominated role on drama series 24 will still be in voters’ minds. Add to that the respected veteran status of Taylor and you have a real contender. Then you have the best tape submitted and most deserving candidate in Kristen Chenowith who’s roles on broadway and a recent role in Emmy drama series contender may also in voters minds (not as much, probably as Smart). A victory for her will be one for the tape system, and the distinct style of Daisies and her memorable character place her in a good position. However I’m predicting Williams to win this year in the vein of Jamie Presley. She doesn’t have a great tape but has a good one and is slightly overdue from last year.
- Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty (FROUNTRUNNER)
- Kristen Chenowith, Pushing Daisies (FROUNTRUNNER)
- Jean Smart, Samantha Who? (DARK HORSE)
- Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live (DARK HORSE)
- Holland Taylor, Two and a Half (IN WITH A CHANCE)
Dillon’s saving grace is that actors could relate to him the best but if he couldn’t win with last year’s tape I don’t have much hope. His episode is trivial and if Entourage wins this it will be Piven, Peter Boyle learnt the hard way that the Emmys have no problem with not sharing the love. Cryer could score a win (despite not belonging anywhere near this category) he is overdue but if he does it will have nothing to do with his tape which is nothing special. To be honest I would pick Wilson for the win if he submitted The Lauch Party which was one of my favourite Dwight episodes of the series but with the poor choice I suspect he will have to wait another year. If the voters are Office fans and have admired his work on the show the tape could be good enough to score a win. Harris has a great shot with a pretty nice tape and a great character but his show isn’t an Emmy favourite show and he has to beat... Jeremy Piven, which I am a little hesitant in predicting, but I believe he has the best tape in this category quite comfortably and we know the Emmys love him. I am tempted to pick an upset, but I could even get that wrong with Harris, Wilson and even the other 2 being potential spoilers.
- Jeremy Piven, Entourage (FRONTRUNNER)
- Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother (DARK HORSE)
- Rainn Wilson, The Office (DARK HORSE)
- Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (IN WITH A CHANCE)
- Kevin Dillon, Entourage (IN WITH A CHANCE)
And just so you know how little stock to put in these predictions here is my track record:
2007: America Fererra, Ugly Betty (CORRECT) - 2006: Jane Kaczmarek, Malcolm in the Middle (INCORRECT) - 2005: Teri Hatcher, Desperate Housewives (INCORRECT)
2007: Steve Carell, The Office (INCORRECT) - 2006: Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (INCORRECT) - 2005: Ray Romano, Everybody Loves Raymond (INCORRECT)
2007: Jenna Fischer, The Office (INCORRECT) - 2006: Jamie Pressley, My Name Is Earl (INCORRECT) - 2005: Jessica Walter, Arrested Development (INCORRECT)
2007: Jeremy Piven, Entourage (CORRECT) - 2006: Will Arnett, Arrested Development (INCORRECT) - 2005: Peter Boyle, Everybody Loves Raymond (INCORRECT)
TRACK RECORD SCORE: 2/12 (Hopefully this year I will do better).