An avid fan of both Television and Cinema, this blog is desined to give Noble's personal predictions, and analysis of the Oscar and Emmy races each year, as well as providing a place for Noble's own annual awards for film and television to be archived. Feedback and Discussion is welcomed in the form of comments on the blog posts.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

60th Emmy Awards, Directing and Writing Predictions

This is the easiest race to pick, but by no means as locked up as some think it is. Entourage seems out as does the Office’s Money (unless they want to give Toby an award). 30 Rock needs to rely on being swept up in wave of love for the show. Conchords could win if the voters really like the show and want it to get something and Goodbye Toby could also win if they love the tape and want to finally give The Office the prize here. But this is Pushing Daisies to lose with this category going to pilots of single cam comedies the past 4 years in a row. Add to that my opinion that this is the best one since Arrested Development.
  1. Barry Sonnenfeld for Pushing Daisies ("Pie-Lette") FRONTRUNNER
  2. Paul Feig for The Office (“Goodbye Toby") DARK HORSE
  3. James Bobin for Flight of the Conchords ("Sally Returns") DARK HORSE
  4. Michael Engler for 30 Rock ("Rosemary's Baby") IN WITH A CHANCE
  5. Paul Lieberstein for The Office ("Money") IN WITH A CHANCE
  6. Dan Attias for Entourage ("No Cannes Do") LONGSHOT
This branch obviously quite likes Galactica but if Occupation/Precipie couldn’t win last year I don’t hold much hope for Six of One. I wouldn’t completely rule out the Wire, it is the only chance to honour this critically acclaimed darling and the writers may realise that. Enough to overtake this years drama series nominees that have more critical buzz? Not sure. 24 set the precedent for a serialised drama with critical buzz winning for its Pilot (the only Pilot to win in 10 years) – so Damages has a real shot especially if the Mad Men episodes split the votes. However the Emmys have made one thing clear with this category over the past 9 years they LOVE the Sopranos with 6 wins and only 1 loss (to Emmy magnet West Wing). Keeping that in mind the Mad Men episodes written by overdue Sopranos scribe, Matthew Weiner, have a great shot. Splitting votes may also not be as bigger factor as some might think with the winner from 8 of the past 9 years having multiple entries (however Lost’s 2 episodes got beat so it is possible). The question is which one will win? I’m not sure but will go with the Wheel as from what I hear the ending will stay in voters’ minds more.
  1. Matthew Weiner & Robin Veith for Mad Men ("The Wheel") FRONTRUNNER
  2. Matthew Weiner for Mad Men ("Smoke Gets in Your Eyes") FRONTRUNNER
  3. Todd A. Kessler, Glenn Kessler, & Daniel Zelman for Damages ("Get Me A Lawyer") DARK HORSE
  4. David Simon & Ed Burns for The Wire ("–30–") DARK HORSE
  5. Michael Angeli for Battlestar Galactica ("Six of One") LONGSHOT

This is a great list of episodes and really the academy can’t go wrong. In my opinion any winner here will be better than last year’s champ. Boston Legal could win if they love it, but I think it’s out as compared to such innovative and more buzzed entries. 4 of the last 8 winners in this category were pilots so that should give 3 shows an edge. However I’m not sure if Breaking Bad can break through here as 7 of the past 8 winners have hailed from series that were at least nominated for drama series (the exception was much buzzed Deadwood) and the competition is stiff. House is a great episode but I’m not sure if this procedural which isn’t self contained can win over the other 2 series. It was a hard choice to pick the winner here. It is worth noting that of the past 8 years only twice has a series won writing and directing (emmy champs West Wing, Sopranos) and in both cases the same episode did not win both awards. For writing I picked Mad Men but the Wheel episode so it still has a shot. However since Damages goes at a quicker pace, has in ways a shower directing style and in recent years both serials (24) and shows which flash back and forth in time (Lost) have managed to win here I’ll pick it to win.

  1. Allen Coulter for Damages ("Get Me A Lawyer") FRONTRUNNER
  2. Alan Taylor for Mad Men ("Smoke Gets in Your Eyes") FRONTRUNNER
  3. Greg Yaitanes for House ("House's Head") DARK HORSE
  4. Vince Gilligan for Breaking Bad ("Pilot") DARK HORSE
  5. Arlene Sanford for Boston Legal ("The Mighty Rogues") IN WITH A CHANCE

A good line-up of episodes here. Malcolm in the Middle and Arrested Development showed that a series can win this twice in a row and if 30 Rock splits votes it is possible, but I think the Office may not have a special enough episode in this competitive field to win. The hot new series with a great written episode, Pushing Daisies, could also prevail as the AD and Earl Pilots did but I feel that voters will see it as more of a directorial work. If 30 Rock wins it should be for Rosemary's Baby but I have a feeling that if voters want 30 Rock to win they are going to want to give it to Tina Fey. With it's 2 big nominations and a top 10 for series I have a feeling that the academy has a thing for Conchords and what better category to award it to than here where the 2 lead actors (and musicians) of the series will walk away with Emmys. However after missing out last year I'm suspecting they will want to give this to Tina Fey, to make sure she gets something to take home.

  1. Tina Fey for 30 Rock ("Cooter") FRONTRUNNER
  2. James Bobin, Jemaine Clement, & Bret McKenzie for Flight of the Conchords ("Yoko") FRONTRUNNER
  3. Jack Burditt for 30 Rock ("Rosemary's Baby") FRONTRUNNER
  4. Bryan Fuller for Pushing Daisies ("Pie-Lette") DARK HORSE
  5. Gene Stupnitsky & Lee Eisenberg for The Office ("Dinner Party") DARK HORSE

And just so you know how little stock to put in these predictions here is my track record:

2007: Ugly Betty (CORRECT) -2006: Curb Your Enthusiasm (INCORRECT) -2005: Desperate Housewives (CORRECT)

DIRECTING DRAMA:2007: Friday Night Lights (INCORRECT) - 2006: Six Feet Under (INCORRECT) - 2005: Lost (CORRECT)

COMEDY WRITING: 2007: 30 Rock (Tracey Does a Conan) (INCORRECT) -2006: Arrested Development (INCORRECT) -2005: Arrested Development (Righteous Brothers) (CORRECT)

DRAMA WRITING:2007: The Sopranos (Made In America) (CORRECT) - 2006: Six Feet Under (INCORRECT) - 2005: Lost (Walkabout) (INCORRECT)

SCORE: 5/12

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